What will Obama do with his (and our) electoral victory? The answer depends on understanding Obama. There are two possibilities.
One theory, widespread among progressives, is that Obama is one of them, perhaps a bit more “pragmatic” than they would like, but basically a person for whom social justice is the central value. According to this theory the many compromises of Obama’s first term reflected inexperience, excess caution, or structural (constitutional) limits; the expectation is that these will be less pressing in the second term. Those who hold this view of Obama hope that he will use his victory to impose a progressive deal on the Republicans (i.e., lower the tax cuts on the rich and minimal changes in entitlements.)
By contrast, my theory is that Obama is not a progressive at all, but a neo-liberal, “third-way” advocate or “new Democrat.” According to the neo-liberals and Clintonian new Democrats, the danger in American politics comes from “extremism.” Obama wants Boehner to control the tea-party and, correspondingly, Obama will make sure there is no “tea-party” on the left. The goal is to give the banks, and the other dominant forces in American life what they want.
The two theories lead to divergent expectations as to how Obama will handle the “fiscal cliff.” In the first, he will use his electoral victory and newly ramped-up followers to pressure the Republicans for a solution that favors the poor and the middle class. In the second, he will work to bring about a solution that responds to the wishes of the banks and the very rich, who have never accepted the need for entitlements. What Obama has to do is cut entitlements while preventing the left from exploding. This involves turning an argument over politics into an argument over which politicians are “mature” and “grown-up,” and which are immature. Which theory is correct can be tested by watching how the negotiations unfold.
The trouble is both of these versions can be true. He can be progressive “inside’ but feel as President that he has to hold the center, which is then compromised in the self into being a center-liberal. He could use his leadership to constitute a more empowered left vision, a transformative vision, by speaking up for it with passion and helping others to believe that’s possible. But if for whatever psychological and social-historical reasons, he can’t personally do that, it seems inevitable that he will fade toward the center-liberal compromise. That means some other “we” has to emerge to pull him to the Left and make that progressive vision enter the realm of the possible for him. On balance this still makes me glad he’s holding the State for four years while we try to constitute the movement. It’s not what I’d like Obama to do, but i think it’s counter-productive to wring our hands about him and shower him in negativity, which wont pull him in our direction.
its impossible to constitute a left until we develop a full-throated, full-hearted critique of obama and put it out there. By avoiding “showering him in negativity” we leave a vacuum on his left and he just keeps moving further and further right. FUrthermore, this needs to be distinguished from where public opinion is going– further and further left! THere is a real disjuncture between the country and obama.